Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: historical returns, compared.
Two of the most-searched assets in finance, side by side — on the same window, with the same starting dollar, using real monthly closes. No cherry-picked start dates, no missing drawdowns.
$10,000 invested in Oct 2014
No further contributions. Marked to market monthly through Oct 2026.
The numbers
| Metric | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Ending value of $10,000 | $2.29M | $45,732 |
| Total return | 22788.0% | 357.3% |
| Annualized (CAGR) | 57.3% | 13.5% |
| Max drawdown | -75.6% | -23.9% |
| Worst 12-month return | -73.6% | -18.2% |
Reading the tape
Over the shared window (Oct 2014 to Oct 2026), Bitcoin compounded at 57.3% per year versus 13.5% for the S&P 500. That gap is real — and so is the price paid for it.
Bitcoin's deepest peak-to-trough loss over the window was -75.6%. The S&P 500's was -23.9%. Its worst 12-month stretch dragged holders down -73.6%, compared with -18.2% for the index. If you couldn't sit through a drawdown like that, the CAGR on paper isn't the CAGR you would have earned.
The S&P 500 is a diversified basket of 500 U.S. companies with a century of history, dividends, and earnings to anchor it. Bitcoin is a single, ~15-year-old asset whose returns are driven by adoption and liquidity cycles. They are not the same kind of instrument, and a straight CAGR comparison is only the beginning of the story.
Volatility and drawdown
"Volatility" is the polite word. What matters in practice is drawdown — how far you're underwater at the worst moment, and how long it lasts. A -75.6% drawdown means a $10,000 position was, at one point, worth about $2,443. Most people sell there. The historical return assumes you didn't.
This is why a comparison built on annualized returns alone is misleading. The right question isn't "which asset returned more?" — it's "which return could I actually have kept?"
DCA changes the picture
A lump sum on day one is the best case for whichever asset happened to run first. Dollar-cost averaging — the same amount every month — smooths the entry and blunts the drawdowns. Try it on the simulator: same two assets, $500/month, and see how the gap narrows.
FAQ
Has Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500?
Over Bitcoin's full price history, yes — by a wide margin in CAGR terms. Over shorter, more recent windows, the answer flips depending on the start month. The simulator lets you check any window you care about.
Is past performance predictive?
No. Bitcoin's returns are driven by adoption cycles that may or may not repeat. The S&P 500's are driven by U.S. corporate earnings over long periods. Use history to calibrate expectations, not to forecast.
What data is this?
Monthly closes: SPY as an S&P 500 total-return proxy, and CoinGecko month-end USD prices for Bitcoin. See the methodology.